By PHYS-ORG
It is important to determine the location of any damage that may have been caused to a pipeline after an earthquake, as they can span hundreds of km and are not always easily accessible.
In general, pipeline damage predictions consider ground faults caused by earthquakes as distinct hazards, including surface faulting and landslides. N.
Simon Kwong, Kishor Jaiswal and the US Geological Survey have developed a method that combines ground failure risk with ground tremor to create a better forecast for pipeline damage.
Researchers describe in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America their probabilistic methodology, and explain how it functions in a scenario that is based on the data of the Northridge earthquake of 1994 and the nearly 4,000 km of pipelines in southern California. .
Breaks as a measurement of network performance. The combination of multiple hazards shows that ground tremors can be “a non-negligent hazard for buried pipelines” because ground failure risks, while more harmful than tremors but not always occurring, are significantly greater.
Kwong’s and Jaiswal’s conclusion. Jaiswal said that there is ongoing discussion in the literature regarding the influence of ground shakes on pipelines buried in soil. The infrastructure will move according to the depth of the soil.
He said that the reality was that both ground faults and tremors could affect pipelines’ performance and their operation. This is what motivated him to examine hazards in a more collaborative and careful manner. Jaiswal. Consideration of multiple hazards remains a challenge.
The Hazus tool of the US Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA, for estimating damage to pipelines from earthquakes separates out ground faults from ground tremors before adding the results. Kwong said, “Our research goal was to create a method that accounts for multiple risks while propagating the underlying uncertainty to evaluate network performance. Kwong explained, “a pipeline can cover hundreds of kilometers and the subsurface conditions can be very different along that network.”
In the BSSA paper, probability theory is used to combine coarse and spatial scales. fine”. Kwong & Jaiswal note that “in our Southern California case study, we discovered that by analyzing each risk separately and one-by-one, the risk of seismic damage to pipeline networks buried underground was slightly underestimated, and using median repair rates rather than the average rate, significantly understated this risk.” Researchers and pipeline operators can compare the actual damage to a pipeline caused by different hazards with models that predict it.
The input models could be used to guide pipeline researchers and operators on where to search for damage following an earthquake or predict possible future damages from a particular earthquake scenario. The underlying probabilities theory also helps to develop displacement maps for different ground fault types. Researchers warn that the accuracy of forecasts depends on the input models in the new method. High-quality models are not always available for some applications such as the earthquake damage predictions for wastewater pipes. buried.
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