By Amin Ahmed
The United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP), which released the Pakistan case study Tuesday, said that although initial assessments indicate a loss in the region of $30 billion dollars, it is still unclear what the total impact will be on the GDP of Pakistan. Reconstruction and rehabilitation costs “could increase by billions”, the UNEP stated.
In the chapter, “Cascading impacts and floods: Building adaptable capacity in Pakistan”, it is stated that while an initial assessment suggests total damages and loss of $30bn with as many as 9.1m people being pushed into extreme poverty and another 1.9m into multi-dimensional, but reconstruction and rehabilitation costs may be increased by billions.
In the UNEP report titled ‘Adaptation Gap Report, 2023’ the case study for Pakistan also outlined the factors that thwarted damage assessments.
The factors include poor data collection and communication, lack of flood monitoring over large geographical areas, limited engagement of non-governmental organizations, and difficulties in quantifying satellite data.
Rebuilding takes less time
Pakistan ranks among the most vulnerable countries to climate change and natural disasters. The study found that climate-related catastrophes caused significant losses in life, and enough socioeconomic damages to reverse development gains.
Climate and weather disasters caused a loss in Pakistan of $29,3 billion between 1992 and 2021.
More than 1 700 people died in 2010 alone due to the floods. Over 20 percent of the land in Bangladesh was affected by damage to infrastructure, livestock, and agriculture.
A study has warned that natural disasters in Pakistan are becoming more frequent, larger and of greater magnitude. It also said the time available for reconstruction and recovery after each catastrophe is “getting shorter and shorter”.
The study found that these damages were not caused only by social and natural vulnerabilities, but also both.
Natural hazards such as flooding and drought have an impact directly on food and agriculture. The social vulnerability of Pakistan, caused by the high rate of poverty on multiple levels, is another factor that drives disaster risk.
The effects of climate change have altered the traditional patterns of weather. According to the study, the monsoon season lasts between June and September, with a retreat from October to December. Around 60pc (or 60%) of Pakistan’s annual rainfall occurs in this period.
All eight monsoon depressions recorded in 2022 were in the south of Balochistan, Sindh and Sindh. This may be due to the elevated temperatures on the surface.
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